Sharp Turn of the Currency Market: What to Expect from the Euro and Dollar at the Beginning of July.

They forecast a tense period in the Ukrainian currency market from June 27 to July 2, 2025, due to the influence of international geopolitics, the results of the NATO summit, internal budget processes, and increased demand for currency. The National Bank intends to intervene actively to stabilize the situation.

External Challenges and Influencing Factors

The main external factors affecting the exchange rate will be the ramifications of the war in the Middle East and the behavior of the euro/dollar. According to experts, rising oil prices and the falling euro exchange rate may positively or negatively influence the situation with the hryvnia exchange rate due to increased demand for foreign currency by Ukrainian companies and the population.

Internal Influencing Factors

The end of the month, quarter, and half-year is another factor putting pressure on the hryvnia due to large volumes of hryvnia liquidity in the market. The National Bank, having significant reserves, will spend them in case of negative trends to support the hryvnia exchange rate.

Exchange Rate Forecast for June 27 - July 2

• Euro/Dollar Pair: corridor from 1.145 to 1.171.

• Interbank:

  • US Dollar: 41.35 – 41.85 UAH/$.

  • Euro: 47.34 – 49.01 UAH/€ (with a real working corridor between 47.90 – 48.80 UAH/€).

• Cash Market:

  • Dollar in Banks: 41.20 – 42.25 UAH/$.

  • Dollar in Exchange Offices of Financial Companies: 41.35 – 42.10 UAH/$.

  • Euro in Banks: 47.30 – 49.10 UAH/€.

  • Euro in Exchange Offices of Financial Companies: 47.80 – 49.00 UAH/€.

The upcoming week is expected to be volatile in the currency market. The stability of the exchange rate will depend on the decisions of the National Bank of Ukraine and the international situation.