Intelligence predicts the depletion of Russian reserves by 2026.

Degradation of the Russian economy

According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, the Russian economy continues to deepen its degradation due to the prolonged war with Ukraine and measures imposed by Western countries.

According to observations, the National Wealth Fund (NWF) is steadily decreasing. For example, the liquid assets of the NWF have decreased from $145 billion in July 2022 to $39 billion at the beginning of May 2025, which is almost a fourfold decline.

'The main source of income for the NWF (oil exports) is increasingly under threat. Western sanctions have complicated Russia's access to traditional markets, while alternative logistical routes are proving less effective and require higher costs. It is forecasted that in 2025 the average price of Brent crude will be $64 per barrel, and in 2026 - $60. For Russia, whose budget relies on oil and gas revenues, such dynamics create serious financial risks'

Problems in key sectors

Problems in the economy are already affecting key industries. In the budget of the state corporation 'Rosatom', underfunding amounts to 80%, while 'Russian Railways' experiences a decrease in transportation volumes, and production in other sectors is also declining.

'Nevertheless, Moscow publicly continues to demonstrate confidence in the stability of the economy. However, state-controlled propaganda that conceals the true scale of economic decline does not change the objective data: the resource model of the Russian economy is losing efficiency. Given the current restrictions and potential new measures - including increased control over oil sanctions evasion - Russia risks exhausting its last financial resources by 2026'

The report shows that the Russian economy is increasingly exposed to negative influences due to the war with Ukraine and Western sanctions. Problems in key sectors and the degradation of the National Wealth Fund indicate serious difficulties facing the Russian economy.